Georgia on China's Mind

In response to Mockrates, it's no doubt Obama gave up all leverage on attacking McCain's gun slinging efforts to start a war with Russia, which is dumb, but I figure it's because Obama was in his swimming trunks at the time and McCain was getting way too much play off the crisis. We are all Georgians made great soundbite. Obama's position is as believable as his pledge to re-negotiate Nafta. As the mock stated in an earlier discussion:

Obama would be wise to hold a press conference and say "welcome to the world of a completely ineffectual US in international affairs, courtesy of Bush/McCain's diplomatic and military disasters and overstretch." Instead, he'll probably come at him from the right, using some unsightly, incoherent Frankenstein's monster of a position.

Since counters seem the order of the day, we should start an Obamastein counter. His health-care plan should be at the top of the list.

I am more and more certain that there is zero chance of a confrontation with Russia, even with a President Palin. The reason is that Russia's military is still too weak to confront the US military in open battle, and they've made it pretty clear that any attack on Russian territory will be immediately answered by a nuclear strike. Even though they successfully copied US tactics in their swift strike into Georgia, they suffered relatively heavy losses from anti-aircraft fire.

Congress has started hearings into what role the US played in instigating Georgia to move forces into S. Ossetia, as well as investigating who drew first blood, and Iran was a huge part of the discussion. With this in mind, check out this crazy assertion that Bush goaded Georgia as cover for a limitednuclear strike on Iran. On a sidenote, I just learned that the price of oil rose dramatically in June following rumors of a thwarted nuclear strike on Iran.

Everything the US is doing pretty much plays into Russia's hands. So keeping with the meme of watching the actions of our new Chinese overlords, I think the real action is in the Asian response which has been politely negative. Russia can't be too happy about that.

Presidentiality to believe in

In her first kid-gloves interview, Palin goes to war with Russia and with her next breath dissolves NATO. Its schadenfreude times at VVHQ.

GIBSON: Would you favor putting Georgia and Ukraine in NATO?

PALIN: Ukraine, definitely, yes. Yes, and Georgia.

GIBSON: Because Putin has said he would not tolerate NATO incursion into the Caucasus.

PALIN: Well, you know, the Rose Revolution, the Orange Revolution, those actions have showed us that those democratic nations, I believe, deserve to be in NATO.

Putin thinks otherwise. Obviously, he thinks otherwise, but...

GIBSON: And under the NATO treaty, wouldn't we then have to go to war if Russia went into Georgia?

PALIN: Perhaps so. I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you're going to be expected to be called upon and help.

But NATO, I think, should include Ukraine, definitely, at this point and I think that we need to -- especially with new leadership coming in on January 20, being sworn on, on either ticket, we have got to make sure that we strengthen our allies, our ties with each one of those NATO members.

We have got to make sure that that is the group that can be counted upon to defend one another in a very dangerous world today.

GIBSON: And you think it would be worth it to the United States, Georgia is worth it to the United States to go to war if Russia were to invade.

PALIN: What I think is that smaller democratic countries that are invaded by a larger power is something for us to be vigilant against. We have got to be cognizant of what the consequences are if a larger power is able to take over smaller democratic countries.

And we have got to be vigilant. We have got to show the support, in this case, for Georgia. The support that we can show is economic sanctions perhaps against Russia, if this is what it leads to.

It doesn't have to lead to war and it doesn't have to lead, as I said, to a Cold War, but economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, again, counting on our allies to help us do that in this mission of keeping our eye on Russia and Putin and some of his desire to control and to control much more than smaller democratic countries.

His mission, if it is to control energy supplies, also, coming from and through Russia, that's a dangerous position for our world to be in, if we were to allow that to happen.

The full transcript is here.

Today's newsfeed from Komsomolskaya Pravda on this was:
"Sarah Palin: Russia's agression must be answered with military actions, but first there need to be economic sanctions."

To be a fly on the wall in a Nato meeting today.

Another Bad Idea

Lawyers, Guns and Money has a new post today on how certain defense analysts think the Georgian Army should be rebuilt along a Hezbollah model. Nice. The Georgians should just admit they have a failed state, dismantle the military, and start funding local militias. Putting aside the nihilism of this argument--including the fact that this would condemn Tbilisi to rubble--it wouldn't work because the Russians already have paramilitaries operating in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and incursions by Georgian paramilitaries would only provoke an organized Russian response. Tbilisi needs greater regional stability, not instability, and the bigger threat is that irregular South Ossetian forces will continue to operate in the region. Hezbollah is also not a good example because Israel is way more sentimental than Russia. I've seen some examples of criticism for Russia's handling of the Beslan massacre--a botched rescue operation--but I've seen nothing but praise for their handling of the Nord-Ost siege, when Russian forces responded to Chechen fighters taking a Moscow theater hostage by gassing the place, killing all the Chechens along with well over 100 hostages.

I especially like how they cite Grozny as a positive example:

Downtown Grozny , Feb 2000. Via Cobb.